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Not far is the day when broadband transmission capacity is over 1 GB/sec. All movies and TV shows new and old will be accesible instantly on demand. Real time multiconferencing or live personal broadcasting will be common routine with a cell phone. Not that we can not do that right now, nothing amazing, just a matter of making it easily available to the masses as a daily routine, in a split second.

But wait...

What will impede me to run any software from any computer? Say, I could run Visual Studio from the internet in my office, home, laptop, my friend's pc, or even my neighbors and have my settings and projects stored in my Yahoo briefcase. Instead of running it from my HD, confined to one computer, I could run it from Yahoo's HD and access it everywhere I want. Think about it. What would computers would be good for? Just to play the role of a dumb terminal, more like a TV ?

Software will be available by subscription, buy one license, use it everywhere. Better yet, ISPs will offer packages with unlimited software use for a fee. The end of software as we know it? Calculators, mailers, notepads, painters, browsers, word processors, everything available from everywhere. No installations, no upgradings, no removing. Nothing. Pay and play.

But how about the OS ? Will it be relegated to the only purpose it should have had since the begining? Just to control basic input output devices? Who do you think is more likely to be the winner OS in this new brave world?

Will powerful companies play tough enough and bribe every communications company out there in an attempt to derail progress? Or will they smartly adapt and invest in the best technology to position themselves at the top of the wave?

Only time will tell, it's not a matter of if, but how soon.

Posted on Wednesday, July 14, 2004 5:09 PM | Back to top


Comments on this post: The end of software

# re: The end of software
Requesting Gravatar...
I thought about this too - sometime ago.

It seems to me that this will be an available model sometime in the future - the benefits are very good: no more upgrades (esp. those that go wrong), pay-as-you-use software, less piracy (maybe), no shipping costs, no having to upgrade your harddrive to install stuff, etc etc.
Left by peetm on Jul 15, 2004 11:13 AM

# re: The end of software
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Can you imagine?

No more viruses, HD crashing, 5min boot up waiting time.
Even iPods won't need HD, just wireless connection to your music storage. Pick your song and play.

I guess it would be a shifting of distributed storage to a centralized model. Shocking change indeed.

But who cares as long as it is reliable, private and secure.

I love the future as long as it comes on time.

;-)
Left by RebelGeekz on Jul 15, 2004 11:54 AM

# re: The end of software
Requesting Gravatar...
Overclocked? Right!

Bloatware, be gone; why not deliver an ASP software model accessed by a thin client workstation (who needs a pesky OS anyway - put it on a eprom) - in fact, lets deliver the OS on line as well. Lets say they pay 0.001¢ per line of code used per month; so folks that never use F1/Help don't pay for support and folks that don't use spellcheck...well they pay the price.

Benn there, seen it, done it, got the T-short? No! The issue is bandwidth. 1gb exists (I have 1,024kbps) but;

1) I only have it downstream; my upstream is 128
2) My 1,024 is not guaranteed (right now I have 64!) so I certainly won't run a business critical application across it
3) contention rates? What are they?

I agree that the "Wired" World is the answer; all we are missing is the wires - let alone the wireless!

Cableguy
Left by your_toilet_brush on Sep 02, 2004 7:13 PM

# re: The end of software
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I think the "wired world" concept here is great...in a vacuum. Unfortuately we don't live in a vacuum, but reather an uncertain world where the Internet must be able to operate around impending resource shortages, war and terrorist attacks and the attempts of totalitarian governments to surveil and control it. The network computing model is bad for all these things. A power outage in Redmond shouldn't should down Microsoft Word for a milion users. A terrorist attack on Google in California shouldn't wipe out everybodies saved documents in Texas. And most importantly, the government should not be able to read EVERY word document that EVERYBODY wrote EVERYWHERE by installing one spy program at microsoft. And I for one would never use a kiosk that could have God know what keystroke monitors/viruses on it, its just not secure, and besides that's what laptops are for...At least I can control my security on my laptop.
Left by Luke on Oct 06, 2004 4:30 PM

# re: The end of software
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what planet are you on whilst theire are any elecronice devices theire will allways be software and the struture you talk about would take years to implement if not decades and would require vast billions who is going to pay for this yes it will be possable to bave even 100gb per second in the near future but if a server is a 512kb
yoou aint going to be able to download much quicker that the server will alow there for what you are talkin about will only work if every server becabe super fast which aint goin to happen in our life time well not in the uk
Left by killmicrosoft on Nov 16, 2004 2:30 PM

# re: The end of software
Requesting Gravatar...
Software will be available by subscription, buy one license, use it everywhere. Better yet, ISPs will offer packages with unlimited software use for a fee. The end of software as we know it? Calculators, mailers, notepads, painters, browsers, word processors, everything available from everywhere. No installations, no upgradings, no removing. Nothing. Pay and play.
Left by spam filter on Feb 16, 2005 4:14 AM

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