The Patriots are currently 15-0, and are looking to become the second team to ever have a perfect regular season.
But, how good are the Patriots really? Perhaps they are just lucky?
|
P(Winning Each Game)
|
P(Going 15-0)
|
|
50%
|
0.003%
|
|
75%
|
1.336%
|
|
90%
|
20.589%
|
|
95.4842%
|
50.000%
|
From the chart above, if the Patriots really had a 50% chance of winning each of the first 15 games, then they were certainly lucky. Not quite lottery winning lucky, but a team with a true 50% chance of winning each game should only have an 0.003% chance of winning the first 15 openers.
So what is a good estimate of the Patriot's winning chances against an average team, (on the premise that are initial conditions are held constant for the playing season)? Looks like 95.5% is a good guess based on this season alone.
Another thing you might want to keep in mind is that the Patriots won 21 games in a row (18 regular season, 3 post-season) in the 2003-2004 seasons.
Pretty cool, huh? Hope you get to catch the game against the Giants this Saturday at 8 pm EST (It will be on ABC and NBC)...
Enjoy,
Jonathan Starr 