I know that politics is a taboo subject for a blog devoted to technology. However, I have come across an interesting and, in my opinion, logical solution to the problems in the Mideast. My view is an American one, and perhaps I don't take into account all of the needs of other participants. However you may at least find my view provocative if not entertaining or feasible.
There are a few points that I need to make first (like mathematical lemmas), and then I will combine these points to make my proposal.
Point 1: Having Many Neighbors is a Bad Thing
I once saw a statistical study that isolated the greatest predictors for any country going to war. To my surprise, the greatest single predictor was the number of borders a country shares with foreign countries. This, to a large degree, makes sense. If the average probability a country goes to war with another is p, then the average probability that a country will not got to war might be approximately
Probability(No War) = f(n) = 1 - pn
where n is the number of borders the country shares with other. This function, f(n) is a monotonically decreasing function.
Point 2: What Causes Specific Wars
In my opinion, the reason why countries go to war is that countries (or their leadership) believe that they can gain something from waging war that they cannot achieve through peaceful means. So while some wars are indeed wars of aggression (the war is desired by one party but not another), I think that that is the special case. More often the road to war is more easily traveled when both countries believe they have something to gain from a war strategy.
Putting These Together
When I look at the situation in Israel, I cannot help but notice that
(1) Israel has many borders with foreign countries.
(2) Israel is a very small country, which may give neighboring countries the impression that they can easily seize this land.
(3) Israel’s military is better trained, and is equipped with far superior technology than its neighbors, which may give Israelis the impression that if the country wages war, they will likely win.
The Proposal
So the natural proposal is for Israel to swap its land for an island. Or perhaps to acquire an island and in secret shift its most important assets there.
- Islands are more easily defended because they don’t share any land borders with other countries. Anyone who has played Risk, knows about this…. And seriously, island nations on average enjoy much more peace than non-island nations.
- Island nations can invest in navies to defend themselves, but land based enemies leave their borders less secure when they shift military expenditures to naval development.
Final Plug
There are many Israelis who will counter that swapping the Holy Land for an island is contrary to the wishes of God. And they might argue that the entire bible is a Jewish deed proving ownership of this land goes back thousands of years.
But the purpose of the State of Israel is to provide a secure homeland for Jews. And unfortunately, the particular geography of Israel makes this very difficult.
Interested in comments,
Jonathan
Tools Print Email Del.icio.us
Digg
reddit