Hurricane

Happy Hurricane Season!

Mark Treadwell — Fri, 01 Jun 2007 22:14:57 GMT

Everyone say hello to Tropical Storm Barry. All the forecasters have been downplaying this storm as nothing but a rainmaker, but it looks like we will get a little breeze out of it too. It should be clear by COB Saturday, so overall it seems to be nothing but a refreshing wakeup to everyone who needs to get out and spend money during the Florida hurricane sales tax holiday.

I hope the people flying down early are not too disappointed by the rain and wind. Everything should be past for Orlando by late Saturday. So, welcome to Orlando, ... and welcome to TechEd!

Update: It is clear, bright, sunny and breezy now on the back side of Tropical Depression Barry. It looks like New England will get a bit of wind on Monday.

Hurricane 2006

Mark Treadwell — Fri, 02 Jun 2006 00:48:00 GMT

It begins!

We have been innundated here in Orlando with dire warnings of multiple catastrophic storms all trying to fit through our windows. Florida has told everyone to be self-sufficient for 5-7 days while rescue crews work to save the sick, infirm, elderly and stupid (we have lots of all four). Previously, we were told to be able to hold out for three days.

I have patched my stucco cracks again this year to help keep out the wind driven water. My storm shutters are standing by. The generator is ready. The Dinty Moore is on the shelf.

Bring it on!

2005 Hurricane Season Now Really Over

Mark Treadwell — Sat, 31 Dec 2005 21:48:00 GMT

I intentionally delayed posting this until today to ensure my 2005 numbers were really, really accurate. As it turns out, I was brilliantly prescient, because in the last 31 days since the mainstream media produced its cluster of End of Hurricane Season stories, nature proved once again that artificial deadlines really are artificial. We have had two named storms this December, and the last one is still hanging on in the far eastern Atlantic.

In 154 years of record-keeping, this year had the most named storms (27), the most hurricanes (15), the highest number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. (4), and the most Category 5 hurricanes (3)
Katrina was the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928 -- more than 1,300 known dead
Katrina replaced 1992's Andrew as the most expensive hurricane on record -- $34.4 billion in known insured losses
Total insured losses from hurricanes in 2005 are estimated at $47.2 billion, above the previous record of $22.9 billion set in 2004 when four hurricanes also hit the U.S.
Wilma was briefly the most intense Atlantic hurricane on record in terms of minimum central pressure (882 millibars)
Wilma was also the fastest-strengthening storm on record -- its top sustained winds increased 105 mph in 24 hours in the Caribbean
Forecasters exhausted their list of 21 proper names (Arlene, Bret, Cindy and on through Wilma) and had to use the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta) to name storms for the first time

Disclaimer: These numbers are subject to change as we find more dead people and more insurance claims are processed.

Update: Added another hurricane since Cindy was reclassified from a Tropical Storm.

Has your name been retired? Here are the ones that will no longer be used.

1954 - Carol, Hazel
1955 - Connie, Diane, Ione, Janet
1957 - Audrey
1960 - Donna
1961 - Carla, Hattie
1963 - Flora
1964 - Cleo, Dora, Hilda
1965 - Betsy
1966 - Inez
1967 - Beulah
1968 - Edna
1969 - Camille
1970 - Celia
1972 - Agnes
1974 - Carmen, Fifi
1975 - Eloise
1977 - Anita
1979 - David, Frederic
1980 - Allen
1983 - Alicia
1985 - Elena, Gloria
1988 - Gilbert, Joan
1989 - Hugo
1990 - Diana, Klaus
1991 - Bob
1992 - Andrew
1995 - Luis, Marilyn, Opal, Roxanne
1996 - Cesar, Fran, Hortense
1998 - Georges, Mitch
1999 - Floyd, Lenny
2000 - Keith
2001 - Allison, Iris, Michelle
2002 - Isidore, Lili
2003 - Fabian, Isabel, Juan
2004 - Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne
2005 - ???

Hurricane Effects: What a Category Five Hurricane Can Do

Mark Treadwell — Mon, 29 Aug 2005 00:06:00 GMT

Update: MSNBC has a short interview with Meteorologist Robert Ricks who wrote this. He wanted to be wrong, but could not find anything to pull out that was inaccurate.

If this comes true, people will not believe what they see. Much of this is from the Hurricane Andrew analysis and lessons learned.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

When a 747 is Like a Kite

Mark Treadwell — Sun, 28 Aug 2005 19:57:00 GMT

The National Hurricane Center says that Hurricane Katrina has sustained winds of 165 mph. People are throwing around lots of statements about what that will do to buildings. Suffice it to say that most of the modern construction and all the weaker buildings will be heavily damaged if not leveled.

I did some quick research to put this wind speed into perspective. Making lots of assumptions about weight and control, it would theoretically be possible to fly a Boeing 747-400 like a kite in Katrina's winds. The average takeoff speeds for such an airplane is between 160 and 180 knots with a near-full load. In a lighter condition, it would be less, so my brash comparison may stand up.

All the talking heads will continue to pontificate until we can see the devastation. Of course, many of those pontificating will be weatherdudes like I mentioned before. This will be a good storm with plenty of opportunity for one of them to kill himself.

Katrina killed nine in Florida. Let us hope that not too many more will die.

Hurricane Fixes Artificial Reef

Mark Treadwell — Sat, 16 Jul 2005 19:13:00 GMT

This is neat: Dennis fixes artificial reef by turning Spiegel Grove upright

It is about the only good news I have heard during the last five hurricanes.

Hurricane Recovery: Dangerous Generators

Mark Treadwell — Sat, 16 Jul 2005 19:10:00 GMT

In this post from last year, I stated that you could safely backfeed your house from a generator if you did it correctly, but that doing so incorrectly was dangerous -- dangerous as in someone being dead. It seems that the latest victim is a Georgia electric utility worker who was apparently electrocuted by a generator which was improperly connected.

This is tragic and need not have happened. I want to restate a caution that I said last September: you need to know what you are doing with your home electrical system when you backfeed. Do not attempt to backfeed your home in ignorance.

Apparently, someone expressed their electrical ignorance. Now, someone else is apparently dead for it. The local police chief may not refer criminal charges, but I think the dead man's family may have a civil case.

Small generator carbon monoxide has killed at least one in Florida in Dennis' aftermath.

However you manage it, dead is still dead, and, Darwinism aside, your family has to endure your loss. Do not add to the statistics.

Update: I guess the carbon monoxide danger is even worse than the electrical danger based on this article. Eight people have died within the past 12 months in Florida due to stupid generator use. Get a strong chain, a good lock, and build an enclosure ahead of time to keep it dry.

Hurricane Preparations: Get in Line for Installed Shutters

Mark Treadwell — Wed, 13 Jul 2005 22:14:00 GMT

The more I read, the happier I am with my choice to install my own hurricane shutters.

This article describes the problems people are having trying to get a contractor to do the installation. Once you get past the rip-off artists, it will take time just to get the materials. I know, since I had an eight-week wait for my aluminum panels. With the materials available, you need to get the contractor to do the install. The guy I bought my panels from was scheduled through the end of the year, and that was back in April.

I am beginning to believe that my removable footer design was a good idea. The article describes how people are stealing panels. I can see other pieces of a shutter system will follow as thieves go for either the aluminum itself or its resale value.

This will affect everyone in the country since the shutter manufacturers are here in Florida and we are sucking up most of the supply. If you want hurricane shutters, order now and be prepared to wait for them to be installed for the 2006 hurricane season.

Hurricane Dennis Observations

Mark Treadwell — Sun, 10 Jul 2005 17:17:00 GMT

We are very thankful here in the Orlando area that Hurricane Dennis went elsewhere. We feel for the people in the Pensacola area who are getting whacked by the storm, which is coming ashore right about now. Central Florida got hit by some strong storms from the feeder bands, but they were very much like our almost-daily thunderstorms. I saw some tree damage, but no building structural damage.

I also see that my weatherdude and reporter predictions have come true. They are using videophones to go to even more stupid places. These people will no doubt keep up their idocy even after one of them gets killed.

Hurricane Preparations: Surviving Pontificating Weathermen

Mark Treadwell — Tue, 05 Jul 2005 12:30:00 GMT

I had a great post ready yesterday until the blog ate it. Silly me did not copy to clipboard prior to hitting the Post button. Sigh. That I will be able to survive. What may kill us all will be the meteorologists.

Two storms are brewing -- TS Cindy and soon to be TS Dennis. Let the hyperventilating begin!

Each burst of thunderstorms since June 1 has been cause for alarm. Each Special Tropical Disturbance Statement has been thoroughly chewed over. Each satellite loop played endlessly over and over and over and over... The May rainfall amounts over Florida have been analyzed again and again.

TS Cindy will probably end up being a rain event for the gulf coast. TD Four (soon to be Dennis) will let them gas on ad nauseum for days. The cyclone is predicted to be over Cuba Friday morning (8 July), so all those Weatherdudes with their cool TV sets just for them will have days to transform the National Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty (their storm track guesstimate) into a Cone of Certain Death.

The important issue for Florida is the June rainfall. Central Florida had the second rainiest June in history. (That is for all those people who live at Orlando International Airport.) The ground is saturated and all the retention ponds are full. The real threat for most of Florida will be flooding.

Here are some rules of thumb to remember as we start the Summer of the Storm:

Weatherdudes and reporters are only interested in the worst damage and personal Tragedy.
Only the Absolute Highest Wind Numbers are cited by Weatherdudes.
Weatherdudes rarely mention the size of a storm except when they are talking about Power (a nebulous term that they are allowed to define themselves on the fly).
Weatherdudes rarely mention that those Absolute Highest Wind Numbers are only applicable to a relatively tiny portion of the coast on the right side of the storm's eye as it moves ashore.
Reporters try to find the Absolute Highest Wind Numbers, dressed in the spiffiest possible rain gear, and then tell you not to stand out in the dangerous winds like they are.
Noise cancelling microphones cannot cancel out hurricane winds.
The cute furry socks reporters slip over their directional microphones to cut ambient noise just do not work and never seem to look good when drenched with salt spray and covered with muck.
Reporters getting beach sand in their face is better TV than broadcasting from the second floor of a Holiday Inn.
Reporters instantly become Trained Professionals when standing in hurricane winds.
Handheld anemometers make you look more like a Trained Professional.
No training is required to be a meteorologist or a Trained Professional when a hurricane exists.
Having a mobile weather station on the top of their logoed SUV lets the reporters look more like Trained Professionals and lets them one-up the competition.
Reporters have an inherent right to drive on closed streets and do the stupid stuff that common folk can only wish they could do too, but would never risk damage to their vehicle.
Storms are not sentient, although Weatherdudes and reporters will make them seem so.
Reporters will look for old neighborhoods, manufactured housing and trailer parks to find certain Tragedy. If they can match them up with the Absolute Highest Wind Numbers, even better.
Highlighting any perceived failure in emergency response is key to enhancing the Tragedy.
The standard notice from emergency responders that they will not attempt rescues during the height of the storm does not apply to reporters, since they always deserve to be rescued if in immenent danger.
Reporters will find someone who's double-wide was just trashed and ask them for their personal thoughts on the Tragedy.

Let's hope we survive the news media, let alone the storms.