Gartner predicts a few interesting things in its document entitled “Predicts 2004: Microsoft Application Platform vs. J2EE.” You should check it out if you have a chance. Of course, without an account, that'll be kind of hard. Sorry. Here's the overview...
Although the J2EE application server market is mature and the Microsoft application platform is more technically sound, changes and risks will remain part of the application platform landscape for enterprises in 2004 and beyond.
And, here are a few of the interesting predictions:
- Indigo will move Microsoft onto the middleware industry's leading edge
- The “all you need is great software” doctrine will continue to keep Microsoft on teh wrong side of the enterprise chasm
- Java-based application platform vendors will look beyond the certified J2EE
These were just the broad predictions; each had significant backing, which Gartner is known for. The part I liked the most was the “strategic planning assumption” stated at the end of the 3rd section:
By 2008, more than 40% of APIs in leading J2EE-based enterprise application servers will be proprietary (70% probability).
I thought this was funny because the biggest thing that J2 systems have against .NET is that they are more portable. Well, due to obviously less than adequate features of J2EE, vendors have added their own libraries to extend the environment, which makes applications developed with these libraries less portable, if at all.
Amusing. Simply amusing.