Okay… here’s the thing. My roommate and I, as usual, disagree. I sent him the article claiming that Apple is working on a kind of Tablet-like product. Regardless of the accuracy of that claim, it sparked an interesting conversation. He said, “I’d probably buy one of those… even though there’s no point to it.” He then went on to say that there is “no market” for a Tablet device.
Being the owner of a Tablet PC, I felt obliged to disagree. Let’s go over a few things that were said:
1) He said that “Tablet PCs are underpowered and overpriced.” I agreed that the first generation seemed to be so, but that things had changed in 2004 and that parity between Tablet PCs and similar non-Tablet laptops was becoming reality.
2) He said that adapting any laptop-capable OS to serve a Tablet was “trivial.” I told him that slapping handwriting recognition on Windows XP would not make it the same as XP Tablet PC Edition. I tried to explain the deep support for ink, pen input, new form factors, screen rotation, and so on all constituted a very real effort. Far from trivial, I asserted.
3) I mentioned that Microsoft may integrate Tablet PC Edition features into the base Windows Client in the future (ie. Longhorn). He said this “proved his point” that the difference between a tablet and non-tablet OS was “trivial.” I disagreed. I said that including that functionality would not only benefit tablet users, but also anyone who interacts with a tablet user. Being able to send ink-aware data to my desktop (or yours) could be invaluable.
4) I said that many believe Tablet functionality will become the standard on all mobile computers of the future, and that the “laptop” as we know it is going to evolve into something that includes Tablet functionality.
5) I said that in the long run, we would have better, more capable laptops, as well as new form factors for mobile computers… Those that ditch the keyboard altogether. Right now we call them “slates.” I think smaller slates will eventually become very popular around the house.
6) I told him that I’ve used my tablet for work, for studying, and for recreation. It has had a profound positive impact on each of those aspects of my life. Note-taking on a Tablet is another world entirely. My friend says that $0.99 pack of paper is a better idea. But I can’t instantly search three years of paper notes. I can’t copy and paste an excerpt into an IM conversation. I can’t copy HTML from a web site into my paper notes and then annotate it or embed voice notes. I can’t instantly resize a diagram I drew, change the color of text I’ve written, or insert space in between two sections of writing or drawing on a page. You really have no idea how often I do that last one when taking notes for classes. I also can’t create links to my sources on the web, or embed file attachments from the school network, visual studio, etc. The year of notes from college that I have in paper form are actually larger (in their respective folders and binder) than my Toshiba M200! And far, far less organized.
I don’t expect everyone to go on a Tablet buying spree tomorrow. But I do expect that over the next few years, more and more students going off to college will buy tablets instead of regular laptops. I think some schools that require/provide/recommend laptops will switch to tablet devices. And I think those students will become so attached to that functionality that they’ll want it in every portable computer they use thereafter.
I also think Tablets and mobile computing in general have a long way to go. But I think to say that there is “no market” for a Tablet device is naïve and short-sighted. Perhaps he’s right that a tablet device doesn’t fit into Apple’s vision of the home, or into Apple’s business plan for the near-term. But that doesn’t mean it won’t happen eventually.
So here’s what I want… I want to hear what you think the future of the Tablet PC is going to be. How would you respond to claims that the Tablet PC is a dead end? Would you agree? Disagree? Why?
Post a comment, link, or trackback with your thoughts. Tomorrow I’ll be back with a wishlist for Tablet PC 2006 (or whatever Redmond has cooking up next).