Forty years ago this week, future Intel co-founder Gordon Moore postulated the amazing theorem that the power of computer chips would double every 24 months at the same time as their prices would halve.

The pronouncement has since taken on the aura of the ultimate high-tech prophecy and has even spawned a parody on the cartoon show "The Simpsons" in which the mad scientist Professor Frink said: "I predict that within 100 years, computers will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger and so expensive that only the five richest kings of Europe will own them."

               In 1964, Electronics magazine asked Moore, then at Fairchild Semiconductor, to write about what trends he thought would be important in the semiconductor industry over the next 10 years for its 35th anniversary issue. ICs (integrated circuits) were relatively new. Many designers didn't see a use for them and worse, some still argued over whether transistors would replace tubes. A few even saw integrated circuits as a threat: if the system could be integrated into an IC, who would need system designers? The article, titled "Cramming more components into integrated circuits," was published by Electronics in its April 19, 1965, issue.

Moore's paper proved so long-lasting because it was more than just a prediction. The paper provided the basis for understanding how and why integrated circuits would transform the industry. Moore considered user benefits, technology trends, and the economics of manufacturing in his assessment. Thus he had described the basic business model for the semiconductor industry -- a business model that lasted through the end of the millennium.


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